Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation

Moving health simulation findings into programs, practices, and policies

Policy Impact

Scientific publications in peer-reviewed journals

St Clair, P., Gaudette, E., Zhao, H., Tysinger, B., Seyedin, R., Goldman, D. P. Using Self-reports or Claims to Assess Disease Prevalence: It’s Complicated. Medical Care, August 2017. 55(8): 782-788.

Cheng, W.H., Gaudette, E., Goldman, D. P. PCSK9 Inhibitors Show Value for Patients and the US Health Care System. Value in Health, June 2017.

Zissimopoulos, J., Blaylock, B., Goldman, D. P., Rowe, J. W. Raising the Social Security Entitlement Age: Implications for the Productive Activities of Older Adults. Research on Aging, December 2016. 39(1): 166-189.

Agus, D.B., Gaudette, E., Goldman, D.P., Messali, A. The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older. PLoS One, November 2016. 11(11).

Goldman, D.P., Gaudette, E., Cheng, W. H. Competing Risks: Investing in Sickness Rather than Health. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, May 2016. 50(5) Suppl 1: S45-S50.

Gaudette, E., Tysinger, B., Cassil, A., & Goldman, D. P. Health and Health Care of Medicare Beneficiaries in 2030. In Forum for Health Economics and Policy, 2015. 18(2): 75-96.

Gaudette, E., Goldman, D.P., Messali, A., and Sood, N. Do Statins Reduce the Health and Health Care Costs of Obesity?, PharmacoEconomics, Advance online publication, Jan 2015.

Zissimopoulos, J., Crimmins, E., and St.Clair, P. The Value of Delaying Alzheimer’s Disease Onset. Forum for Health Economics and Policy, November 2014. 2194-6191.

Goldman, D.P. and P.R. Orszag, The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy: Using the Future Elderly Model to Estimate Implications for Social Security and Medicare. American Economic Review, 2014. 104(5): 230-33.

Eibner, C., et al., Three large-scale changes to the medicare program could curb its costs but also reduce enrollment. Health Affairs, 2013. 32(5): 891-9.

Goldman, D.P., et al., Substantial health and economic returns from delayed aging may warrant a new focus for medical research. Health Affairs, 2013. 32(10): 1698-705.

Lakdawalla, D.N., et al., Measuring the Value of Better Diabetes Management. American Journal of Managed Care, 2013. 19(Special Issue 2): SP1, SP70-76.

Michaud, P.C., et al., The value of medical and pharmaceutical interventions for reducing obesity. Journal of Health Economics, 2012. 31(4): 630-43.

Michaud, P.C., et al., Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance. Social Science and Medicine, 2011. 73(2): 254-63.

Goldman, D.P., et al., The benefits from giving makers of conventional ‘small molecule’ drugs longer exclusivity over clinical trial data. Health Affairs, 2011. 30(1): 84-90.

Goldman, D., et al., The Fiscal Consequences of Trends in Population Health. National Tax Journal, 2010. 63(2): 307-30.

Sood, N., et al., The effect of regulation on pharmaceutical revenues: experience in nineteen countries. Health Affairs, 2009. 28(1): w125-37.

Lakdawalla, D.N., et al., U.S. pharmaceutical policy in a global marketplace. Health Affairs, 2009. 28(1): w138-50.

Goldman, D.P., et al., The benefits of risk factor prevention in Americans aged 51 years and older. American Journal of Public Health, 2009. 99(11): 2096-101.

Shang, B. and D.P. Goldman, Does age or life-expectancy better predict health care expenditures? Health Economics, 2008. 17(4): 487-501.

Goldman, D.P., et al., The Value of Elderly Disease Prevention. Forum for Health Economics & Policy, 2006. 9(2).

Shekelle, P.G., et al., Identifying potential health care innovations for the future elderly. Health Affairs, 2005. 24 Suppl 2: W5R67-76.

Bhattacharya, J., et al., Technological advances in cancer and future spending by the elderly. Health Affairs, 2005. 24 Suppl 2: W5R53-66.

Lakdawalla, D.N., D.P. Goldman, and B. Shang, The health and cost consequences of obesity among the future elderly. Health Affairs, 2005. 24 Suppl 2: W5R30-41.

Chernew, M.E., et al., Disability and health care spending among Medicare beneficiaries. Health Affairs, 2005. 24 Suppl 2: W5R42-52.

Goldman, D.P., et al., Consequences of health trends and medical innovation for the future elderly. Health Affairs, 2005. 24 Suppl 2: W5R5-17.

Joyce, G.F., et al., The lifetime burden of chronic disease among the elderly. Health Affairs, 2005. 24 Suppl 2: W5R18-29.

Bhattacharya, J., et al., Disability Forecasts and Future Medicare Costs, in Frontiers in Health Policy Research, D. Cutler and A.M. Garber, Editors. 2004, MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.

Lakdawalla, D.N., J. Bhattacharya, and D.P. Goldman, Are the Young Becoming More Disabled? Health Affairs, 2004. 23(1): 168-76.

Lakdawalla, D., et al., Forecasting the nursing home population. Medical Care, 2003. 41(1): 8-20.


Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. The California Tobacco Tax for Healthcare, Research, and Prevention Act of 2016 (Proposition 56): Projected Long-Term Health Impacts on the Los Angeles County Adult Population. October 2016. Available at:


National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income: Implications for Federal Programs and Policy Responses. Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population-Phase II; Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; and Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, 2015. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

McClellan, M.B., and Rivlin, A.M., Improving Health While Reducing Cost Growth, What is Possible?, The Brookings Institution, 2014. Brookings Institution Health Policy Issue Brief, Number 1.

Goldman, D.P. et al. Health Status and Medical Treatment of the Future Elderly – Final Report. The RAND Corporation, 2004. Technical Report TR-169-CMS.

Book chapters

Hurd, M., et al., The Effects of Tobacco Control Policy on the Social Security Trust Fund, in After tobacco : what would happen if Americans stopped smoking?, P.S. Bearman, K.M. Neckerman, and L. Wright, Editors. 2011, Columbia University Press: New York. p. 290-321.

Working papers

Atella, V., Belotti, F., Carrino, L., Mortari, A. P.,  2017. The Future of Long Term Care in Europe. An Investigation Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model. CEIS no. 405.

Garcia, J.L., Heckman, J. J., Leaf, D. E., Prados, M. J., 2017. Quantifying the Life-cycle Benefits of a Prototypical Early Childhood Program. NBER no. 23479.

Auerbach, A.J., Charles, K. K., Coile, C.C., Gale, W., Goldman, D.P., Lee, R., Lucas, C. M., Orszag, P.R., Sheiner, L.M.,  Tysinger, B., Weil, D. N., Wolfers, J., Wong, R., 2017. How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms, NBER Paper no. 23329.

Garcia, J.L., Heckman, J. J., Leaf, D.E., Prados, M.J., 2016. The Life-cycle Benefits of an Influential Early Childhood Program, NBER Paper no. 22993.

Chen, B.K., Jalal, H., Hashimoto, H., Suen, S., Eggleston, K., Hurley, M., Schoemaker, L., Bhattacharya, J., 2016. Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan. NBER Paper no. 21870.

Gaudette, E., 2014. Health Care Demand and Impact of Policies in a Congested Public System, USC CESR-Schaeffer Paper no. 2014-005.