Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation

Moving health simulation findings into programs, practices, and policies

September 23, 2015

Center Model is Centerpiece of a National Academy of Sciences Report

In a new National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, a committee chaired by Ronald Lee (U.C. Berkeley) and Peter R. Orszag (Citigroup) collaborated with Roybal Center researchers to investigate the macroeconomic implications of trends in health inequality in the US. Using the Center’s Future Elderly Model (FEM), the committee examined how changes in life expectancy will likely affect the progressivity of federal programs. Findings suggest significant reductions in progressivity of both Medicare and Social Security if current mortality trends persist and noticeable effects on total program costs.