For more than a decade, the USC Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation has been developing health and economic simulation models and collaborating with researchers all over the world to answer salient policy questions in the United States and globally. Funded by the National Institute on Aging, Center affiliates collaborate to research determinants of health and health spending among older populations and translate these findings for policy makers who influence aging policy.
The Roybal Center used the Future Elderly Model to generate a snapshot of shifting Medicare demographics and spending between 2010 and 2030.
Presented at a forum hosted jointly with the Center for Health Policy at Brookings, findings reveal that baby boomers, who began turning 65 and aging into Medicare in 2011, will drive Medicare demographic changes, swelling the estimated U.S. population aged 65 or older from 39.7 million to 67.0 million. Fueled by demographic and health shifts, the FEM predicts that Medicare spending will more than double to $1.2 trillion by 2030.
In a recent National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, a committee chaired by Ronald Lee (U.C. Berkeley) and Peter R. Orszag (Citigroup) collaborated with Roybal Center researchers to investigate the macroeconomic implications of trends in health inequality in the US.
Using the Center’s Future Elderly Model (FEM), the committee examined how changes in life expectancy will likely affect the progressivity of federal programs. Findings suggest significant reductions in progressivity of both Medicare and Social Security if current mortality trends persist and noticeable effects on total program costs.